acdl/.ciagent/GRILL.md

CIAgent Grill Report

Run: 2026-07-27 19:30 (mode: interactive, focus: all)

Verdict: Proceed with conditions (confidence: 0.72)

Two escalations must be resolved before the leadership pitch:

• G-005 (risks): 6 cloud capabilities (CAP-017..022) are deploy-unverified. RESOLVED (v1.11): CAP-017..022 are now Verified live-aws via the modules-lifecycle pipeline (apply/modify/destroy exit 0). The IAM-drift framing is removed. See CAPABILITY_INVENTORY.md.
• G-008 (budget): No cost documentation exists despite live AWS resources. RESOLVED (v1.11): COST.md now exists, documenting the v1.0→v1.10 spend window + the v1.11 cost projection. The v1.14 P19 phase extends the window to v1.11–v1.14.

The project is reclassified as an OSS reference implementation (G-003), not a sponsored product. The grill's sponsor/ROI/budget/timeline axes apply in weakened form; the adoption, architecture, and risks axes apply in full.

Axis 1 — Business Case

• Q1: What problem does this actually solve, and is that problem still the top priority?
  • Evidence: PROJECT.md:3-21 (vision + North Star); G-003 reframing (OSS reference)
  • Answer: ACDL is an OSS reference implementation showing the shape of an agentic cloud delivery platform. The problem (cognitive load of infra + operational work of safe change) is documented in docs/vision.md.
  • Confidence: 0.85
  • Decision: G-003 — reframe as OSS reference implementation; no sponsor/ROI required.
• Q2: Who is the named executive sponsor, and when did they last make a decision under pressure?
  • Evidence: MISSING (no named sponsor in any .ciagent/ file)
  • Answer: Not applicable for an OSS reference implementation (G-003). Senior leadership requesting the pitch is interest, not sponsorship.
  • Confidence: 0.85
  • Decision: G-003 (carries forward).
• Q3: What happens to the business if the project is cancelled?
  • Evidence: PROJECT.md:487 ("0 consumer adoption"); 10 milestones shipped with no consumers
  • Answer: If cancelled, no consumer loses a deployed system. The reference value (clonable shape) persists in the repo. Cancellation cost is low — consistent with OSS reference framing.
  • Confidence: 0.80
  • Decision: G-003 (carries forward).
• Q4: Is the ROI calculated against a counterfactual?
  • Evidence: MISSING (no ROI calculation anywhere)
  • Answer: Not applicable for an OSS reference implementation. The bar is "is it a credible, demonstrable reference?" not "is there a paying customer?"
  • Confidence: 0.85
  • Decision: G-003 (carries forward).

Axis 2 — Scope and Requirements

• Q1: Is the scope expanding, contracting, or genuinely stable?
  • Evidence: ROADMAP.md (v1.0→v1.10, 55 phases); v1.7 added uptime-kuma + decommission + RDS; v1.9.x added decks; v1.10 added regression-class VERIFY + local emulators
  • Answer: Expanding. The Out-of-Scope table (REQUIREMENTS.md:61-72) is scoped to v1.1 only; later milestones added scope without boundary updates.
  • Confidence: 0.70
  • Decision: G-010 — OSS scope is contributor-bounded; no out-of-scope table needed.
• Q2: Who owns the requirements, and have they been frozen?
  • Evidence: REQUIREMENTS.md (115 REQs, REQ-01..REQ-115); config.json autonomy=full
  • Answer: The user owns requirements via CLARIFY auto-resolution under full autonomy. Not frozen — each milestone adds REQs.
  • Confidence: 0.70
  • Decision: G-010 (carries forward).
• Q3: What is explicitly out of scope?
  • Evidence: REQUIREMENTS.md:61-72 (v1.1 Out-of-Scope table only); PROJECT.md:42-51 (Domain Boundaries)
  • Answer: Domain Boundaries section (PROJECT.md:42-51) defines durable out-of-scope: application business logic, IDE workflows, product backlog, node/OS-level compute. No per-milestone out-of-scope updates since v1.1.
  • Confidence: 0.65
  • Decision: G-010 — contributor-bounded scope accepted for OSS reference.
• Q4: Are there hidden requirements only disclosed late in delivery?
  • Evidence: v1.10 milestone (decay disclosure, PROJECT.md:59-67) — 7 adapter defects undisclosed across 8 phases
  • Answer: Yes — the v1.10 decay incident is a late-disclosed hidden requirement (reproducibility). D-091 regression gate is the mitigation.
  • Confidence: 0.72
  • Decision: G-007 (carries forward — milestone-level regression gate catches late-disclosed decay).

Axis 3 — Architecture and Technical Feasibility

• Q1: Has the proposed architecture been validated by the people who will build and operate it?
  • Evidence: PERSONAS.md (agent personas only); ARCHITECTURE.md (29KB); no human reviewer sign-off
  • Answer: Validated by the agent that built it, not by a downstream platform team. Acceptable for an OSS reference (G-002 — Platform Team joins post-clone).
  • Confidence: 0.72
  • Decision: G-002 (carries forward).
• Q2: What is the integration surface?
  • Evidence: ARCHITECTURE.md; adapters/ (terraform, wiz, kyverno, local emulators); contracts/ schema
  • Answer: Contract schema (upstream) + engine adapters (downstream). Integration is bounded by the IR + PolicyCheckResult schemas.
  • Confidence: 0.78
  • Decision: (resolved by existing architecture; no new binding decision)
• Q3: Is there an existing system being replaced?
  • Evidence: PROJECT.md:7-8 (vision: absorb cognitive load + operational work)
  • Answer: ACDL replaces manual platform engineering + ticket-driven delivery. No existing system in this repo; downstream teams replace their own.
  • Confidence: 0.75
  • Decision: (resolved by G-002 white-label framing)
• Q4: What is the technical debt being inherited, and is it budgeted for?
  • Evidence: v1.10 decay (7 adapter defects); D-091 regression gate at milestone completion (not per-phase)
  • Answer: Diff-scoped VERIFY debt was paid down in v1.10. Per-phase regression gap is accepted debt (G-007).
  • Confidence: 0.70
  • Decision: G-007 — milestone-level regression gate is correct; inter-milestone decay is an accepted trade-off.

Axis 4 — People, Skills, and Organization

• Q1: Which 2-3 people, if they left, would the project fail?
  • Evidence: PERSONAS.md (agent personas); all binding decisions made by the user (D-034, D-090, G-001..G-012)
  • Answer: One person — the user. Bus factor is 1.
  • Confidence: 0.82
  • Decision: G-011 — single-maintainer is normal for OSS reference; no action.
• Q2: Are the assigned resources actually allocated at the percentages claimed?
  • Evidence: config.json (autonomy=full, max_concurrent_agents=5)
  • Answer: The agent is the resource; allocation is 100% when invoked, 0% otherwise. No BAU fire-fighting claim to verify.
  • Confidence: 0.78
  • Decision: G-011 (carries forward).
• Q3: Is there a product owner with actual authority to prioritize?
  • Evidence: config.json (autonomy=full, decision_confidence_threshold=0.6)
  • Answer: The user is the product owner with absolute authority (full autonomy within user-locked constraints).
  • Confidence: 0.80
  • Decision: G-011 (carries forward).
• Q4: Is the team building capability they don't have?
  • Evidence: RESEARCH.md (101KB); local emulating adapters (Phase 53) — capability was built and proven
  • Answer: No — the agent built and verified the capability. Not a prototype-hoping-to-learn scenario.
  • Confidence: 0.78
  • Decision: (resolved by existing evidence)

Axis 5 — Timeline and Estimates

• Q1: Was the deadline set before or after the scope was understood?
  • Evidence: ROADMAP.md (v1.0 07-21 → v1.10 07-27, 6 days); no deadline documented anywhere
  • Answer: No deadline. Milestones complete when the agent finishes committing.
  • Confidence: 0.78
  • Decision: G-006 — autonomous OSS build has no deadline; cadence is fine.
• Q2: What is the project's critical path?
  • Evidence: MISSING (no critical path analysis)
  • Answer: Not applicable — no deadline means no critical path to push.
  • Confidence: 0.75
  • Decision: G-006 (carries forward).
• Q3: Are the estimates evidence-based?
  • Evidence: MISSING (no estimates; phases complete in agent-time)
  • Answer: No estimates. The cadence is a function of agent speed, not engineering sizing.
  • Confidence: 0.72
  • Decision: G-006 (carries forward — acceptable for autonomous OSS reference).
• Q4: Is there a working definition of done?
  • Evidence: VERIFY.md; AUDIT.md; 4-layer verify gate (structural, behavioral, security, quality)
  • Answer: Yes — the 4-layer verify gate + regression gate (D-091) is the definition of done. "Done" is not "whatever the latest demo shows"; it is a gated, audited state.
  • Confidence: 0.80
  • Decision: (resolved by existing verify gate)

Axis 6 — Budget and Financial Realism

• Q1: What percentage of the budget is already spent vs. remaining?
  • Evidence: MISSING (no budget file in .ciagent/)
  • Answer: Unresolved — no budget documented.
  • Confidence: 0.50
  • Decision: G-008 — ESCALATION.
• Q2: Are there predictable cost drivers not in the original budget?
  • Evidence: config.json escalation_hooks (deploy, delete_data); CAP-013..016 verified against live AWS account 581513795199
  • Answer: Yes — live AWS resources exist (S3 state, DynamoDB outbox, ECS, CloudFront). No cost driver documentation.
  • Confidence: 0.60
  • Decision: G-008 (carries forward — escalation).
• Q3: What's the burn rate, and how long until the money runs out?
  • Evidence: MISSING
  • Answer: Unresolved.
  • Confidence: 0.40
  • Decision: G-008 (carries forward — escalation).
• Q4: Is the budget contingent on something that hasn't happened yet?
  • Evidence: MISSING
  • Answer: Unresolved — likely contingent on the leadership pitch yielding a pilot platform team (G-001).
  • Confidence: 0.55
  • Decision: G-008 (carries forward — escalation).

Axis 7 — Risks, Assumptions, and Dependencies

• Q1: What are the top 3 assumptions the plan rests on?
  • Evidence: PROJECT.md:79-88 (CAP-017..022 IAM-gated); D-039 (OIDC federation deferred, blocked on go-gitea/gitea#36988); D-090 (no cap on re-verification sweep)
  • Answer: (1) Terraform plan path proves deployability. (2) Local emulators prove runtime behavior. (3) Gitea OIDC will eventually merge.
  • Confidence: 0.72
  • Decision: (resolved by G-005 escalation)
• Q2: What are you dependent on outside the team?
  • Evidence: PROJECT.md:79-88 (admin principal needed for IAM re-bootstrap); go-gitea/gitea#36988 (OIDC blocker)
  • Answer: An admin AWS principal (for CAP-017..022) and the Gitea OIDC PR (for D-039 waiver closure).
  • Confidence: 0.78
  • Decision: G-005 (carries forward — escalation).
• Q3: What is the single risk that, if it materializes, kills the project?
  • Evidence: CAPABILITY_INVENTORY.md §"Cloud capabilities NOT re-verified" (6 of 22 capabilities, 27%)
  • Answer: The unverifiable deploy path for CAP-017..022. If the terraform plan path does not translate to a real deploy, 27% of advertised capability is fictional.
  • Confidence: 0.80
  • Decision: G-005 — ESCALATION.
• Q4: Have you done a pre-mortem?
  • Evidence: MISSING (no pre-mortem document)
  • Answer: No pre-mortem on file. The v1.10 decay incident is the closest thing to a post-mortem.
  • Confidence: 0.65
  • Decision: (flagged; no binding decision — user accepted autonomous governance in G-009)

Axis 8 — Governance, Decision-Making, and Communication

• Q1: Who is the decision-maker when two executives disagree?
  • Evidence: config.json (autonomy=full); no human governance body documented
  • Answer: The user is the single decision-maker. No executive disagreement is possible because there is no executive body.
  • Confidence: 0.78
  • Decision: G-009 — autonomous CI is the governance.
• Q2: How often does governance meet, and what's the escalation pattern?
  • Evidence: config.json (escalation_hooks: deploy, delete_data, merge_to_main; escalation_timeout_ms: 300000)
  • Answer: Governance is event-driven (escalation hooks), not cadence-driven. 5-minute timeout.
  • Confidence: 0.72
  • Decision: G-009 (carries forward).
• Q3: What is being omitted from the status reports?
  • Evidence: v1.10 decay disclosure (PROJECT.md:59-67) — 8 phases omitted the decay from status
  • Answer: The v1.10 incident is direct evidence that status reports (decks) omitted material decay. D-094 (rewrite to verified reality) is the correction.
  • Confidence: 0.75
  • Decision: (resolved by D-094 + G-007 regression gate)
• Q4: Is there a "stop the project" trigger?
  • Evidence: MISSING (no stop-trigger documented)
  • Answer: No formal stop-trigger. The user is the single point of cancellation authority.
  • Confidence: 0.68
  • Decision: G-009 — autonomous CI is the governance; no human stop-trigger needed.

Axis 9 — Change, Adoption, and Operational Readiness

• Q1: Who will use this, and what is in it for them?
  • Evidence: PROJECT.md:487 ("0 consumer adoption"); G-001 (MVP for leadership pitch + pilot consumers)
  • Answer: Pilot platform teams (post-pitch) will clone, customize, and deploy for their internal consumers. The value to them is a working reference shape.
  • Confidence: 0.65
  • Decision: G-001 — feature-complete MVP for pitch + pilot consumers in parallel.
• Q2: Is the operations/support team involved now or being handed a finished product?
  • Evidence: MISSING (no Platform Team involvement in 55 phases); G-002 (white-label, out-of-repo)
  • Answer: Intentionally out-of-scope — ACDL is white-label; Platform Team customization happens outside this repo.
  • Confidence: 0.78
  • Decision: G-002 — white-label; Platform Team customization is out-of-repo.
• Q3: What is the rollback plan if it goes wrong?
  • Evidence: D-070 (decommission mode, 2-step pipeline with HITL SRE gates)
  • Answer: Decommission mode exists for deployed stacks. For the reference repo itself, rollback = git revert (no production state to roll back).
  • Confidence: 0.75
  • Decision: (resolved by existing D-070 decommission mode)
• Q4: Has anyone validated the success criteria with the people who will judge success?
  • Evidence: PROJECT.md (leadership pitch requested); no documented success-criteria validation with leadership
  • Answer: The leadership pitch IS the validation moment. Success criteria for an OSS reference = "leadership says this is a credible shape."
  • Confidence: 0.68
  • Decision: G-001 (carries forward — pitch is the validation).

Meta — Closing Review

• Q1: If you were the auditor, what would you flag?
  • Evidence: This grill run
  • Answer: (1) 6 unverifiable cloud capabilities (G-005). (2) No cost documentation (G-008). (3) Vision doc vs. OSS-reference framing tension (G-004 — resolved by keeping vision as target-state description).
  • Confidence: 0.78
  • Decision: (aggregated; G-005 + G-008 are the actionable flags)
• Q2: What is the project not doing that it should?
  • Evidence: MISSING (no pre-mortem, no cost doc, no Platform Team engagement, no stop-trigger)
  • Answer: Documenting the operating model (cost, deploy verification, governance) for a downstream team. The grill surfaced this across G-005, G-008, G-009.
  • Confidence: 0.75
  • Decision: (aggregated; G-005 + G-008 are the actionable items)
• Q3: What is the simplest possible version that could deliver 80% of the value?
  • Evidence: ROADMAP.md (v1.1 spike, Phase 10, REQ-27 — core E2E proven); v1.2-v1.10 (45 phases of expansion)
  • Answer: The v1.1 spike (contract → IR → terraform plan → Checkov → confidence → outbox) is the 80%-value version. The full 115-requirement build is accepted as the reference value (G-012).
  • Confidence: 0.68
  • Decision: G-012 — full catalog is the value; no minimal release needed.
• Q4: What would have to be true for this to succeed in the next 90 days, and is it true today?
  • Evidence: G-001 (pitch + pilot); G-005 (IAM re-bootstrap); G-008 (cost doc)
  • Answer: (1) Leadership pitch yields a pilot platform team — NOT TRUE today (pitch not yet delivered). (2) CAP-017..022 deploy path is verifiable — NOT TRUE today (G-005 escalation). (3) Cost operating model is documented — NOT TRUE today (G-008 escalation).
  • Confidence: 0.72
  • Decision: (aggregated; G-005 + G-008 + G-001 pitch are the 90-day conditions)

Binding Decisions

ID	Axis	Decision	Confidence
G-001	adoption	Feature-complete MVP for leadership pitch + pilot consumers in parallel; CIAgent builds, Platform Team deploys	0.65
G-002	adoption	ACDL is white-label; Platform Team customization is out-of-repo; resolves ops-handoff concern	0.78
G-003	business	Reframe as OSS reference implementation; no sponsor/ROI required	0.85
G-004	business	Keep production-deployment vision; reference describes target state	0.75
G-005	risks	ESCALATION — re-bootstrap IAM or mark CAP-017..022 deploy-unverified in decks	0.80
G-006	timeline	Autonomous OSS build has no deadline; cadence acceptable	0.72
G-007	architecture	Milestone-level regression gate is correct; system worked as designed	0.70
G-008	budget	ESCALATION — add COST.md or document zero-cloud-cost operating model	0.74
G-009	governance	Autonomous CI is the governance; no human stop-trigger needed	0.68
G-010	scope	OSS scope is contributor-bounded; no out-of-scope table needed	0.65
G-011	people	Single-maintainer is normal for OSS reference; no action	0.70
G-012	meta	Full catalog is the value; no minimal release needed	0.68

Escalations

• [G-005] risks — 6 cloud capabilities (CAP-017..022: DynamoDB contracts table, Lambda contract-ingestor, ECS service live, CloudFront production stack, uptime-kuma, OIDC role) are deploy-unverified. The acdl-spike-runner IAM user cannot fix its own IAM (chicken-and-egg). Either re-bootstrap IAM with an admin principal to re-verify, or explicitly mark these 6 as "design-verified, deploy-unverified" in every leadership deck before the pitch. Resolves: project-killing risk (Axis 7 Q3).
• [G-008] budget — No cost documentation exists in .ciagent/ despite live AWS resources (account 581513795199, CAP-013..016 verified). Either add a COST.md documenting monthly AWS spend, or explicitly document that ACDL runs at zero cloud cost (local emulators are the primary tier; live-AWS is a one-off spike per milestone). Resolves: financial-control gap (Axis 6 Q1-Q4).

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Run: 2026-07-29 20:25 (mode: adversarial, focus: v1.14 NFR plan)

Verdict: FEASIBLE WITH BINDING DECISIONS (confidence: 0.72)

The v1.14 milestone is a sound, well-evidenced NFR sweep with a genuine, traceable backlog. Not fundamentally infeasible. Four binding decisions close plan defects + unverified assumptions that would otherwise re-expose the v1.11 4-VPC failure mode. One escalation (E-001) auto-resolved at full autonomy with assumption logging.

9-Axis scores

Axis	Confidence	Forcing question (short)
1 Business	0.80	Real backlog (5 P1 + 4 P2 + 6 swallowed errors + 15+ hardcoded IDs); cancellation survivable but inherits decay risk
2 Scope	0.70	User-directed + frozen; P13 has a hidden feature door (implement vs remove); P2 conditional-child edges past wiring
3 Architecture	0.62	P8 grep unsatisfiable for backend blocks; P8 state-bucket continuity unguarded; P9 IAM naming unverified; P4/P8 file overlap
4 People	0.85	Agentic single-operator; runtime availability is the key-person risk
5 Timeline	0.68	No deadline; 20-phase unverified span is the longest since G-007; P8 is the latent multi-phase-rework risk
6 Budget	0.85	NFR-only, no new AWS resources; P8 re-creation is a one-shot accident not structural cost
7 Risks	0.60	A1 (acdl-* naming unverified), A2 (fallback constant unbound), A3 (P4 gate hardening); kill-risk = P8 orphans state
8 Governance	0.72	Full autonomy; no mid-milestone stop trigger; per-phase "green" ≠ "capabilities Verified"
9 Adoption	0.70	No external users; rollback is git-level for code, AWS-state rollback unaddressed if P8 misfires pre-detection

Binding Decisions

ID	Axis	Decision	Confidence
G-101	architecture	P8 grep scope amended to exclude terraform backend "s3" blocks (bucket arg is static-config-only, evaluated pre-init; cannot reference data.aws_caller_identity). Resource ARNs in policy/code ARE externalized; backend blocks stay literal or move to -backend-config (separate change).	0.80
G-102	risks	P8 must bind ACDL_AWS_ACCOUNT_ID fallback to the live account ID (not a placeholder) AND the lifecycle workflow (full-mode jobs) must set ACDL_AWS_ACCOUNT_ID from aws sts get-caller-identity before any lifecycle invocation. No full-mode run proceeds with the env unset.	0.78
G-103	scope	P13 must take the removal+documentation path (remove --kube-version + document deferral to GitOps reconciler roadmap), NOT the implementation path. Implementing version-aware policy selection is a new feature, violating D-095.	0.85
G-104	architecture	P9 must verify (grep/audit of modules/l1/*/terraform/main.tf + modules/l2/*/composition.json) that every IAM role + KMS key created by the lifecycle pipeline matches acdl-* prefix before merge. CloudFront + WAFv2 (CloudFront scope) remain Resource: "*" with a documented global-ARN constraint.	0.70
G-105	governance	P4's regression-gate hardening must be validated by running the full regression gate immediately after P4 lands (not deferred to P21). Gate must pass clean post-P4 before W2 begins.	0.70
G-106	governance	A mid-milestone regression-gate checkpoint is added after W2 (P12), before W3 begins. Gate runs offline (D-091); a non-Verified result halts W3 until fixed. Not a re-litigation of G-007 (per-phase stays deferred) — a single checkpoint at the natural seam after the security wave.	0.65

Escalations

• [E-001] risks — P8 state-bucket continuity re-exposes the v1.11 4-VPC root cause. G-102 proposes a binding mitigation (bind fallback + wire env into workflow), but the residual risk (a future full-mode lifecycle run with a misconfigured env orphans live state and re-creates resources) cannot be reduced below 0.20 by plan-level decisions alone. Auto- resolved at full autonomy (D-101): accept the residual risk; G-102's binding mitigation (fallback bound to live account ID + workflow env wiring) is the control. The lifecycle pipeline defaults to plan-only (REQ-134) — full-mode runs are workflow_dispatch only, reducing the accident surface. If the user prefers zero residual risk, direct that P8 exclude the state-bucket name from externalization entirely (externalize only resource ARNs, leave the backend bucket literal). Confidence 0.55; auto-resolved per config.autonomy.level=full.

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Run: 2026-07-30 (mode: interactive, focus: v1.15-Nova rebrand, all 9 axes)

Verdict: Proceed with conditions (confidence: 0.82)

A Major/breaking rebrand (ACDL → Nova) across prose, decks, code, env vars, consumer path, SSM path, AWS tag keys, and AWS resource names — 4 execution phases + 1 final. The plan is technically sound and the scope is user-directed (D-102..D-112). Three binding mitigations surfaced (G-104, G-106, G-108); the rest accept the plan as written. Two findings carry residual risk that is accepted at full autonomy (G-103, G-107). No escalations remain open — all auto-resolved with assumption logging per config.autonomy.level=full.

The single most material correction: the versioning scheme was wrong. The plan tagged a Major/breaking milestone on the v1.14.x PATCH line (v1.14.5 = release), contradicting every prior breaking milestone in the project (v1.1→v1.2.0, v1.5→v1.5.0, v1.11→v1.11.0 — all minor bumps). The quoted "Major = progressive minor per phase" rule does not exist in any repo file. G-104 binds: re-tag as v1.15.x minor-bumped phases (P1→v1.15.0 … P5→v1.15.4, with v1.15.4 IS the milestone release).

Per-axis findings

Axis 1 — Feasibility

Challenge: Can the full rebrand (1,465 ACDL/acdl occurrences across 205 files, 21 env vars, 11 AWS resources, 5 tag keys, 67 SSM refs, 23 consumer-path refs) actually be done in 4 execution phases? The migration ordering (docs→code/env→SSM/tags→AWS resources→final) is sound: P1 has no runtime impact, P2's dual-read fallback prevents deployment breakage, P3's parallel-tag period prevents ABAC lockout, P4's staged terraform migration prevents a big-bang failure. The phase dependencies (P2 depends on P1's migration guide; P3 depends on P2's dual-read + nova_tagging warn mode; P4 depends on P3's hard-mode tag enforcement; P5 depends on all) are correctly ordered. Confidence 0.85 that the 4-phase structure is feasible. The terraform init -migrate-state approach for the state bucket is the documented, correct mechanism (back up state JSON first). No hidden dependencies found: the .env.secrets direct-read path (G-106) and the Gitea secrets rotation (G-108) are the only mechanic gaps, both now bound. Verdict: ACCEPT-AS-IS. G-103.

Axis 2 — Scope

Challenge: Is the full AWS resource rename WITH migration (downtime accepted) over-scoped for a rebrand? D-102 locked this as user-directed. The alternative (rename code only, leave AWS resources as acdl-*) would leave a permanent brand inconsistency between code and cloud — acceptable for an NFR patch, not for a "Major/breaking" milestone. The S&P visual theme is correctly out of scope (D-107). The real Gitea repo name stays acdl (D-105) — sensible (repo rename is a separate operational burden). Past Gitea release titles stay ACDL vX.Y.Z (forward-only) — sensible (no history rewrite). Git branch/tag naming has no brand name (D-112) — sensible. Missing from scope: the CI workflow secret-references (.gitea/workflows/* secrets.ACDL_*) — P2 task 3 creates NOVA_* Gitea secrets but the plan does not show the workflow YAML secrets: references being updated; G-108 binds the mitigation. Confidence 0.80. Verdict: ACCEPT-AS-IS. G-104 (versioning — see Axis 5).

Axis 3 — Cost

Challenge: What's the real cost (downtime, person-hours, risk) and is it justified for a rebrand? Per A1 (conf 0.9), no live AWS apply during P0–P4 — so the migration scripts are authored but not executed; the live apply is an operator runbook step. Person-hours are the agent's own (autonomous OSS reference, G-003 carries forward). Downtime is accepted (D-102) but deferred to the operator runbook. Token cost: the 1,465-occurrence rename across 205 files is a large but mechanical edit — the explore survey already quantified the mechanical-vs-judgment split. The risk cost (DynamoDB data loss, state bucket corruption, ABAC lockout) is mitigated by the staged ordering + dual-read + parallel-tag — all plan-validated, not live-applied. For an OSS reference with 0 consumer adoption (PROJECT.md:487), the cost is bounded. Confidence 0.80. Verdict: ACCEPT-AS-IS. G-105.

Axis 4 — Schedule / risk

Challenge: DynamoDB data loss, state bucket migration, ABAC breakage, consumer disruption. The mitigations: (a) DynamoDB scan+copy with row-count verification, keep old tables until verified (manual post-verification deletion — point of no return documented); (b) state bucket terraform init -migrate-state with state JSON backup first; (c) parallel-tag ABAC period (emit nova:* + acdl:* → swap policy → remove acdl:*); (d) consumer disruption mitigated by the dual-read fallback (P2–P4) + the migration guide (P1). The top 3 assumptions: A1 (no live apply — conf 0.9, verified by the established v1.11–v1.14 pattern), A2 (.env.secrets keys renamed, values stay — conf 0.85, now bound by G-106), A3 (Gitea release API reachable — conf 0.8, verified HTTP 200). The single risk that could kill the project: state bucket corruption during -migrate-state — mitigated by the backup-first runbook step. No pre-mortem beyond the runbook is documented, but the staged ordering IS the de-facto pre-mortem mitigation. Confidence 0.78. Verdict: ACCEPT-AS-IS. G-106.

Axis 5 — Technical soundness

Challenge: Is the dual-read fallback design sound? Is the parallel-tag ABAC migration safe? Is terraform init -migrate-state correct? Dual-read: sound in principle (NOVA_X preferred, ACDL_X fallback), BUT the .env.secrets load path bypasses the core/env.py helper — run_platform.sh:288-289 exports $ACDL_AWS_ACCESS_KEY_ID (hardcoded) and regression_verify.py:309-312 parses the file matching k == "ACDL_AWS_ACCESS_KEY_ID" (hardcoded). If P2 renames the .env.secrets keys to NOVA_* but these two readers still read ACDL_*, AWS creds vanish → CAP-013/014/015 (which need live creds for terraform plan) break → regression gate breaks. G-106 binds: dual-read in BOTH load paths (shell export + Python parser must read NOVA_* first, ACDL_* fallback, mirroring the helper contract). Parallel-tag ABAC: safe — emit both tag sets, swap policy with acdl:* as secondary condition, verify, remove. Plan-validated only per A1 (live ABAC stays acdl:* until operator runbook). terraform init -migrate-state: correct documented mechanism; backup state JSON first is the binding safety step. Versioning contradiction: the plan tags a Major milestone on the v1.14.x PATCH line — G-104 binds re-tag as v1.15.x minor-bumped. Confidence 0.85. Verdict: MITIGATE-BINDING (G-106). G-104, G-106.

Axis 6 — Testability / verifiability

Challenge: Can the success criteria actually be verified? Will the regression gate stay 16/16 across a 1,465-occurrence rename? Is grep -rni ACDL returning 0 realistic? The gate-stays-16/16 binding constraint (PLAN.md:44-49) requires per-phase fixture updates — P2 updates env-var fixtures, P3 updates SSM/tag fixtures, P4 updates terraform-name fixtures. The dual-read fallback test (P2) keeps ACDL_* as the fallback source — this is the ONE allowed exception to the grep-returns-0 criterion (success criterion 6 exempts it). mmdc (mermaid CLI) is NOT on PATH, but npx --yes @mermaid-js/mermaid-cli IS available (verified exit 0) and the deck README documents the render command (line 270) with puppeteer-config.json for no-sandbox — so the 5 .mmd PNG re-exports in P1 task 3 are feasible. The Gitea secrets rotation (P2 task 3) was verified: API reachable (HTTP 200), token present, rotate_spike_key.sh pattern exists. Confidence 0.82. Verdict: ACCEPT-AS-IS. G-107.

Axis 7 — Security

Challenge: Does the rebrand introduce a security regression? (a) ABAC policy swap window — mitigated by the parallel-tag period (nova:* + acdl:* both valid → swap → remove); plan-validated only, no live window during P0–P4. (b) Secret rotation — .env.secrets keys renamed (values stay, no re-rotation needed until P5); G-106 binds the dual-read in both load paths so creds don't silently vanish. (c) .env.secrets key rename — the file contains live rotated AWS creds + a Gitea token; renaming keys is cosmetic (same values) but the load-path readers must follow (G-106). (d) IAM policy scope (v1.14 P9 scoped Resource: "*") — the rebrand renames acdl-* ARNs to nova-* in terraform; the IAM policy Resource patterns must be updated to nova-* — P4 task 2 covers this (acdl-spike-runner → nova-spike-runner). No new security regression introduced; the rebrand is nomenclature, not a permission change. Confidence 0.80. Verdict: ACCEPT-AS-IS. G-108.

Axis 8 — Maintainability

Challenge: Will the dual-read fallback + parallel-tag period create technical debt that's hard to clean up? Is P5 (remove fallback) realistic? The dual-read (P2) + parallel-tag (P3) IS technical debt by design — it exists to be removed in P5. P5 does six things in one phase (remove fallback, hard-fail acdl:, delete Gitea ACDL_ secrets, remove .env.secrets legacy comment, multi-persona review + audit, milestone ship). The risk: P5's removal surfaces a break if P2–P4 didn't catch every ACDL_* reference in the platform's OWN CI workflows. But P5 is mechanical cleanup: get_env() drops the fallback branch, shell scripts drop :-$ACDL_X, nova_tagging.py flips warn→hard-fail. The grep-returns-0 success criteria are verifiable. The 0-consumer-adoption state (PROJECT.md:487) means no external consumer breaks at P5; only the platform's own CI must be fully migrated by P4. Confidence 0.78. Verdict: ACCEPT-AS-IS. G-109.

Axis 9 — Adversarial

Challenge: Worst-case scenario? What breaks first? Rollback plan if P4 goes wrong mid-flight? Worst case: the terraform init -migrate-state corrupts the state bucket JSON and the backup was incomplete — you lose terraform state for the microservice + static-assets stacks. Mitigation: the runbook binds "back up the state JSON first" before each -migrate-state; keep old DynamoDB tables until verified (manual post-verification deletion = the point of no return). The staged ordering (KMS alias → SNS/SG → Lambda → DynamoDB → ECR → IAM → state bucket → ALB last) means a mid-flight failure at any step leaves prior steps intact and old resources still named acdl-*. The dual-read fallback (P2–P4) means the runtime tolerates both acdl-* and nova-* during the window — so a partial migration doesn't break the running platform. What breaks first: the .env.secrets load path (G-106) — if the key rename + reader update are misaligned, AWS creds vanish and the regression gate breaks immediately. G-106 binds the mitigation. Rollback: the runbook is the rollback; the staged ordering with "keep old until verified" is the safety net. ALB recreate (last, brief downtime) is the only hard-downtime step; rollback = recreate the old ALB. Confidence 0.75. Verdict: ACCEPT-AS-IS. G-110.

Binding decisions (G-103..G-110)

ID	Axis	Decision	Confidence	Rationale
G-103	1 (Feasibility)	ACCEPT-AS-IS	0.85	4-phase structure is feasible; migration ordering (docs→code/env→SSM/tags→AWS→final) is sound; phase dependencies correctly ordered; terraform init -migrate-state is the correct mechanism.
G-104	2/5 (Scope/Technical)	MITIGATE-BINDING	0.90	Re-tag as v1.15.x minor-bumped phases (P1→v1.15.0 … P5→v1.15.4, v1.15.4 IS the milestone release). The v1.14.x PATCH-line scheme contradicts every prior breaking milestone (v1.1→v1.2.0, v1.5→v1.5.0, v1.11→v1.11.0). The quoted "Major = progressive minor per phase" rule exists in NO repo file. A Major/breaking milestone shipping as v1.14.5 means the semver MAJOR never advances despite a breaking change — consumers on @v1 silently absorb the rebrand. Update PLAN.md, ROADMAP.md §v1.15, PROJECT.md §v1.15, and ARCHITECTURE.md §v1.15 Addendum tag references.
G-105	3 (Cost)	ACCEPT-AS-IS	0.80	No live AWS apply during P0–P4 (A1); migration scripts authored, not executed; downtime accepted (D-102) but deferred to operator runbook. For an OSS reference with 0 consumer adoption, cost is bounded.
G-106	4/5 (Risk/Technical)	MITIGATE-BINDING	0.88	Dual-read in BOTH .env.secrets load paths. run_platform.sh:288-289 (export AWS_ACCESS_KEY_ID="$ACDL_AWS_ACCESS_KEY_ID") and regression_verify.py:309-312 (parses file matching k == "ACDL_AWS_ACCESS_KEY_ID") bypass the new core/env.py get_env() helper. P2 MUST update both readers to read NOVA_* first with ACDL_* fallback — mirroring the dual-read contract. Without this, renaming .env.secrets keys to NOVA_* breaks AWS creds → CAP-013/014/015 fail → regression gate breaks. Old ACDL_* keys removed in P5.
G-107	6 (Testability)	ACCEPT-AS-IS	0.82	Per-phase fixture updates keep the gate 16/16 (PLAN.md:44-49 binding constraint). npx --yes @mermaid-js/mermaid-cli is available (verified) for the 5 PNG re-exports in P1. Gitea API reachable (HTTP 200) + token present for P2 task 3.
G-108	7 (Security)	MITIGATE-BINDING	0.80	P2 task 3 must update the CI workflow secrets: references (.gitea/workflows/*, .github/workflows/*) when NOVA_* Gitea secrets are created, with graceful degrade + retry on API failure. The plan creates NOVA_* aliases but does not show the workflow YAML secrets.ACDL_* references being updated. If the workflows still reference ACDL_* secrets at P5 (when old secrets are deleted), CI breaks. The Gitea secrets rotation must be a hard gate with retry-on-failure (not a silent skip).
G-109	8 (Maintainability)	ACCEPT-AS-IS	0.78	P5 is mechanical cleanup (drop fallback branch, hard-fail acdl:*, delete old secrets); 0-consumer-adoption means no external break at P5; grep-returns-0 is verifiable.
G-110	9 (Adversarial)	ACCEPT-AS-IS	0.75	Runbook + staged ordering is the rollback; "keep old until verified" is the safety net; ALB recreate (last) is the only hard-downtime step. The .env.secrets load path (G-106) is what breaks first if misaligned — G-106 binds the mitigation.

Escalations

None remain open. All material questions resolved with confidence ≥ 0.60. Two findings carry accepted residual risk (auto-resolved at full autonomy with assumption logging):

• G-103 (Axis 1): residual risk that the 4-phase structure underestimates the 1,465-occurrence rename effort — accepted; per-phase fixture updates (G-107) + the explore survey's mechanical-vs-judgment split bound the effort.
• G-107 (Axis 6): residual risk that a test fixture is missed during the per-phase rename, breaking 16/16 at a phase boundary — accepted; the per-phase verify step (run the gate before tagging) catches it before ship.

Forcing questions asked (7)

1. Versioning contradiction — Major milestone on v1.14.x PATCH line vs. prior breaking milestones all minor-bumped. → G-104 MITIGATE-BINDING (re-tag as v1.15.x).
2. P4 migration completeness — plan-validated terraform vs live AWS resources still acdl-*. → G-103/105 ACCEPT-AS-IS (runbook for live).
3. .env.secrets key rename mechanic — dual-read helper bypassed by direct shell/Python readers. → G-106 MITIGATE-BINDING (dual-read in both load paths).
4. Gitea secrets rotation — API reachable, token present, but workflow secrets: references not shown updated. → G-108 MITIGATE-BINDING (update workflow refs, hard gate + retry).
5. ABAC parallel-tag window — over-engineered for 0 consumers, or correct forward-looking safety net? → G-108/Axis-4 ACCEPT-AS-IS (parallel-tag is the mitigation, plan-validated).
6. Regression gate during rebrand — 16/16 across 1,465-occurrence rename? → G-107 ACCEPT-AS-IS (per-phase fixture updates).
7. P5 fallback removal realism — cleanup + review + audit + ship in one phase? → G-109 ACCEPT-AS-IS (mechanical cleanup).
8. P4 rollback plan — runbook + staged ordering sufficient? → G-110 ACCEPT-AS-IS (staged ordering is the rollback).

What the project is NOT doing that it should (adversarial close)

• Documenting the versioning rule it now follows. G-104 binds the v1.15.x minor-bumped scheme, but no .ciagent/ file records the versioning convention. The plan should add a one-line versioning note to PROJECT.md §v1.15 or a VERSIONING.md so the next milestone doesn't re-litigate this.
• Quantifying the live state volume for the DynamoDB scan+copy + state bucket migration. The runbook says "back up first" + "verify row counts" but doesn't quantify the data. For 0-consumer-adoption, this is likely tiny — but the rollback feasibility (G-110) depends on it being small enough to re-scan. Accepted residual risk.

Simplest 80%-value version

The simplest version that delivers 80% of the rebrand value: **P1 (docs/decks)

• P2 (code/env dual-read) + P5 (ship)** — skip the live AWS resource migration (P3 SSM/tags + P4 AWS resources) entirely. The code + docs would say Nova; the cloud would still say acdl-*. This is the "rename code only, leave cloud" option D-102 rejected. The user chose the full migration (D-102) — the binding decision is recorded; the 80% version is NOT the chosen path. The full scope is accepted as user-directed.

What must be true for success in the next 90 days, and is it true today?

1. The dual-read helper + both .env.secrets load paths are updated in lockstep (G-106). — TRUE after P2 binds G-106; FALSE today (the direct readers still hardcode ACDL_*).
2. The regression gate stays 16/16 at every phase boundary (G-107). — TRUE if per-phase fixture updates are complete before each tag; the per-phase verify step enforces it.
3. The CI workflow secrets: references are updated when NOVA_* Gitea secrets are created (G-108). — FALSE today; P2 task 3 must be expanded to include the workflow YAML updates.
4. The versioning scheme is corrected to v1.15.x (G-104). — FALSE today; the plan says v1.14.x. Must be corrected before P0 ship.

The milestone can proceed once G-104, G-106, and G-108 mitigations are incorporated into PLAN.md. Confidence 0.82.