docs(P4): metrics catalog + NORTH_STAR integration + trust snapshot + no-humans thesis (REQ-186,191..195,204,210..213)
P4 (Wave 3, docs) — REQ-186, 191, 192, 193, 194, 195, 204, 210, 211, 212, 213 New docs: - docs/METRICS.md — canonical KPI catalog (grounded/derived/deferred) - docs/metrics/*.md — 13 per-KPI definition-of-success docs (D-127) - docs/METRICS_DEFERRED_ROADMAP.md — 8 deferred metrics + hot-path plan + re-eval triggers (REQ-210) - docs/NO_HUMANS_THESIS.md — thesis defensibility brief (REQ-213) New tools: - core/metrics/trust_snapshot.py — 5 trust metrics + chain-integrity verdict + snapshot hash (REQ-211) - scripts/check_north_star_diff.sh — CI check for NORTH_STAR strategic section changes (REQ-204) Modified: - .ciagent/config.json — strategic_direction_file: .ciagent/NORTH_STAR.md (REQ-186) ---ci--- project: acdl phase: 4 milestone: v1.17 status: execute ---/ci---
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# Nova Metrics Catalog
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> v1.17 — Strategic Direction, Leadership Metrics & Unified Story (REQ-195)
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> Generated: 2026-08-04
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This is the canonical catalog of every executive KPI in Nova's
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leadership metrics layer. Each metric carries a **status**:
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- **grounded** — cites a source file + schema (the metric is computed
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from a real emitted signal)
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- **derived** — documented formula over grounded inputs
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- **deferred** — cites a blocking decision ID (D-096/D-083/D-113/etc.);
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ships as an empty PowerBI placeholder view with a documented schema
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**Hard constraint (NORTH_STAR):** DO NOT make anything up. No fabricated
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numbers. Every metric either has a real source or is explicitly deferred.
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---
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## Zero-Touch Efficiency & AI Autonomy (REQ-191)
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### Touchless Resolution Rate
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- **Target:** ≥ 99% across production estates (Post-Pilot)
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- **Status:** partial (pipeline grounded; denominator = 0 today)
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- **Formula:** runs completing without *operational* HITL block ÷ total runs
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(attestation gates excluded — they're designed controls, not escalations)
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- **Source:** `metrics/nova_metrics.db` `fact_run` (hitl_block column)
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- **Definition-of-success:** `docs/metrics/touchless_resolution_rate.md`
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### Human Escalation Frequency
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- **Target:** < 0.1% of platform actions (Post-Pilot)
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- **Status:** partial (pipeline grounded; denominator = 0 today)
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- **Formula:** operational HITL blocks ÷ total runs (attestation sign-offs
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excluded)
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- **Source:** `metrics/nova_metrics.db` `fact_run` (hitl_block column)
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- **Definition-of-success:** `docs/metrics/human_escalation_frequency.md`
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### AI Decision Accuracy
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- **Target:** ≥ 99.5% (no rollback, no follow-up incident within 5 min)
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- **Status:** partial (pipeline grounded; denominator = 0 today)
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- **Formula:** decisions not followed by apply.failed/incident within 5min
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÷ total decisions
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- **Source:** `metrics/nova_metrics.db` `fact_decision` (outcome column)
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- **Definition-of-success:** `docs/metrics/ai_decision_accuracy.md`
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### MTTD / MTTR (platform-run)
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- **Target:** < 60 seconds (p95)
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- **Status:** grounded (platform-run MTTR)
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- **Formula:** apply.failed.time → successful retry.time
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- **Source:** `metrics/nova_metrics.db` `fact_run` (started_at, completed_at)
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- **Note:** infra-incident MTTR deferred (no incident detection system)
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- **Definition-of-success:** `docs/metrics/mttr.md`
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### Confidence-Gate Halt Rate (REQ-212)
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- **Target:** not a committed target (operational signal)
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- **Status:** grounded
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- **Formula:** runs where confidence band = halt ÷ total runs
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- **Source:** `metrics/nova_metrics.db` `fact_confidence` (band column)
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- **Definition-of-success:** `docs/metrics/confidence_gate_halt_rate.md`
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---
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## Velocity (REQ-192)
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### Provisioning Lead Time
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- **Target:** not a committed target (operational signal)
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- **Status:** grounded (after P1)
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- **Formula:** apply.completed.time − intent.received.time
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- **Source:** `metrics/nova_metrics.db` `fact_run` (started_at, completed_at)
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- **Definition-of-success:** `docs/metrics/provisioning_lead_time.md`
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### Deployment Frequency
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- **Target:** not a committed target (operational signal)
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- **Status:** grounded (after P1)
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- **Formula:** count(run.completed) per day
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- **Source:** `metrics/nova_metrics.db` `fact_run`
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- **Definition-of-success:** `docs/metrics/deployment_frequency.md`
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### Self-Healing Velocity — DEFERRED
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- **Status:** deferred (no auto-remediator)
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- **Blocking decision:** future emitter
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- **Placeholder view:** `placeholder_predictive_reactive.csv`
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---
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## Financial & Cost ROI (REQ-193)
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### Cost Savings via Infracost Estimates
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- **Target:** ≥ 25% on pilot estates (partial)
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- **Status:** partial (pre-apply estimate grounded; actual-spend deferred D-096)
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- **Formula:** sum(cost_estimate.delta_usd) where delta < 0
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- **Source:** `metrics/nova_metrics.db` `fact_cost_estimate`
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- **Definition-of-success:** `docs/metrics/cost_savings.md`
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### FTE Hours Saved (Toil Reallocation Value)
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- **Target:** ≥ 70% of pre-Nova FTE allocation (derived)
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- **Status:** derived
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- **Formula:** run count × manual baseline minutes × blended rate
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- **Source:** `metrics/nova_metrics.db` `fact_run` (count) + manual baseline
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- **Note:** computed on N internal runs today; production-denominator
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activates post-pilot
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- **Definition-of-success:** `docs/metrics/fte_hours_saved.md`
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### Platform ROI
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- **Target:** ≥ 250% measured annually (derived)
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- **Status:** derived
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- **Formula:** (FTE hours saved × blended rate + cloud savings + avoided
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downtime) ÷ platform op cost
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- **Source:** derived from fact_run + fact_cost_estimate + manual baseline
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- **Note:** computed on N internal runs today; production-denominator
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activates post-pilot
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- **Definition-of-success:** `docs/metrics/platform_roi.md`
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### Live CUR Reconciliation — DEFERRED
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- **Status:** deferred (D-096)
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- **Placeholder view:** `placeholder_live_cur_reconciliation.csv`
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---
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## Reliability, Security & Compliance (REQ-194)
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### Zero-Trust Policy Compliance Rate
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- **Target:** not a committed target (operational signal)
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- **Status:** grounded (after P1)
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- **Formula:** 1 − count(assets WHERE last_scan.status ≠ pass) ÷ count(assets)
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- **Source:** `metrics/nova_metrics.db` `fact_policy_check`
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- **Definition-of-success:** `docs/metrics/policy_compliance_rate.md`
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### Attestation Coverage
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- **Target:** 100% of prod/dr promotions attested by a human
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- **Status:** grounded
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- **Formula:** prod/dr promotions attested ÷ total prod/dr promotions
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- **Source:** `metrics/decision_ledger.db` (attestation.recorded events) +
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`hitl_gates.py` + outbox `approver_*` attributes
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- **Definition-of-success:** `docs/metrics/attestation_coverage.md`
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### SLA / Unplanned Downtime — DEFERRED
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- **Status:** deferred (D-096)
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- **Placeholder view:** `placeholder_sla_downtime.csv`
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### Patch Remediation Rate — DEFERRED
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- **Status:** deferred (no patch remediation system)
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- **Placeholder view:** (future)
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---
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## Trust Substrate (REQ-211)
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### Decision Ledger Coverage
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- **Target:** 100% of AI actions with backfilled outcome
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- **Status:** grounded (this milestone builds it)
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- **Formula:** count(decision_ledger rows with outcome ≠ 'pending') ÷
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count(decision_ledger rows)
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- **Source:** `metrics/decision_ledger.db` + `core/metrics/decision_ledger.py`
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- **Definition-of-success:** `docs/metrics/decision_ledger_coverage.md`
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### Trust Snapshot
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- **Status:** grounded (P4 tool)
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- **Source:** `core/metrics/trust_snapshot.py` → `metrics/TRUST_SNAPSHOT.md`
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- **Contents:** Decision Ledger Coverage, Attestation Coverage, Capability
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Health, AI Decision Accuracy, Confidence-Gate Halt Rate, chain-integrity
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verdict, snapshot hash
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---
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## Deferred Metrics (8 placeholder views)
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| Metric | Blocking Decision | Placeholder View |
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|--------|-----------------|------------------|
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| Live Infrastructure Health | D-096 | `placeholder_live_infra_health.csv` |
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| Live Outbox Write Rate | D-096 | `placeholder_live_outbox_rate.csv` |
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| Tamper-Evident Ledger Checkpoints | D-083 | `placeholder_tamper_evident_checkpoints.csv` |
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| Onboarding Funnel (granted) | D-113/D-114/D-119 | `placeholder_onboarding_funnel.csv` |
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| Drift Auto-Reversal Rate | D-096 + no scheduler | `placeholder_drift_detection.csv` |
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| Live CUR Reconciliation | D-096 | `placeholder_live_cur_reconciliation.csv` |
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| SLA / Unplanned Downtime | D-096 | `placeholder_sla_downtime.csv` |
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| Predictive vs Reactive Ratio | future emitter | `placeholder_predictive_reactive.csv` |
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See `docs/METRICS_DEFERRED_ROADMAP.md` for the activation path for each.
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